The big day is here, and this morning’s Oscr nominations have yielded few surprises, and what surprises there are come in the form of snubs. One of the odd bits this year is the number of Best Picture nominees — nine! After two years of going with ten nominees to spice things up, the Academy changed the rules again this year to allow only those films getting at least 5% of the votes to compete. This year’s Best Picture nominees are:
I can think of two films right off the top of my head that had some buzz but failed to secure a nomination: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and Bridesmaids. Bridesmaids was a long shot, of course, because it’s a comedy (and unless it’s a comedy directed by Woody Allen, there’s little chance of a nomination in this category). Dragon Tattoo probably proved much too dark and disturbing for Academy voters, who only gave it three nominations. That’s pretty shocking. Of the nine nominees, seven of them could have been handed to pretty much any other movie released this year as the race will come down to The Artist and The Descendants. I picked The Descendants in my review as being a Best Picture contender, and I would have handed it the win back then, but The Artist has been gaining a lot of momentum so this one could go either way. But, The Artist is categorized by most as a comedy, so The Descendants could have the edge.
The Best Actor category has one surprise in Demián Bichir for A Better Life. Bechir had a lot of support from the acting community and that paid off (and he probably stole the spot from Ryan Gosling for Ides of March). Some are surprised by Michael Fassbender‘s snub for Shame, but the movie did not live up to the hype. It was pretty terrible and his disconnected performance did nothing for me. I guess Leo DiCaprio‘s omission for J. Edgar is also a bit of a surprise, but I think the makeup did him in. It’s nice to see Brad Pitt get a nomination for Moneyball, and Gary Oldman had a lot of buzz for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, but again it’s going to come down to two actors from the top two Best Picture nominee, who also both happened to win Golden Globes for their performances – George Clooney and Jean Dujardin. I’m giving this one to Clooney for his performance as just an average, every day guy with a discount haircut. It’s not how we’re used to seeing Clooney and I think the voters, who love Clooney, will reward his subtle performance.
Best Actress is probably a no-brainer — Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady. Viola Davis is Streep’s toughest competition, but now you have to throw in Michelle Williams after her surprising Golden Globe win for Best Actress in a Comedy (and, for the life of me, I don’t know how or why My Week With Marilyn ever got classified as a comedy). Glenn Close has also garnered some accolades for Albert Nobbs, and Rooney Mara probably hasn’t earned her cred with the voters just yet (newbies can win the supporting actress award though), so congrats to the nominees … but unless your name is Meryl, don’t prepare a speech.
Supporting Actor has a surprise in Jonah Hill for Moneyball. Oscar nominee Jonah Hill, as he will be billed from now on, just sounds odd, but good for him. Nick Nolte was nominated for a film that got a lot of praise, Warriors, but few people bothered to see (this spot probably should have gone to Albert Brooks for Drive). Kenneth Branagh (My Week With Marilyn) is coming off of a Golden Globe loss. Max von Sydow has been earning some rave reviews for his mute performance in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, but I picked Christopher Plummer in my review of Beginners as the hands down winner in this category. He just won the Golden Globe, and I’m confident that he will win the Oscar.
Supporting Actress also seems to be a lock for Golden Globe winner Octavia Spencer (The Help). Jessica Chastain (also The Help) should have been nominated for her uncanny peformance as the young Helen Mirren in The Debt. Bérénice Bejo (The Artist) is an unknown in Hollywood and Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs) is in a movie that not a lot of people liked. Spencer’s biggest competition is Melissa McCarthy for her star-making performance in Bridesmaids, but I think such a broadly comic role won’t stand up to Spencer’s dramatic performance (and judging from McCarthy’s tearful reaction to Spencer’s Golden Globe win, I think she’d be just fine losing to her).
Best Director doesn’t have any curveballs like David Fincher on the list. All of the nominated directors’ films are up for the big prize. Martin Scorsese won the Golden Globe for Hugo, but I doubt he’ll pull off a win here. Woody Allen is also nominated for Midnight in Paris, as is Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life. I think we can count both of them out since the Academy knows they won’t show up for the ceremony. Is anyone surprised Spielberg didn’t get a nomination for War Horse? Just like Best Actor, the Best Director award will come down to Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist and Alexander Payne for The Descendants. Voters could be crafty by handing one Best Picture and the other Best Director, but I’m going to go with the probable Best Picture winner’s director, Alexander Payne.
The two biggest surprises of all the nominations are major snubs. The Acaedmy has proven once again their dislike for Madonna, who won the Golden Globe for Best Song for her directorial debut W.E. The whole Best Song category is a surprise with only two nominations (and the only category to give The Muppets some love). Elton John can take comfort in Madonna’s snub … but he was snubbed too (backlash from his reaction to her Golden Globe win?). The other surprise has to be in the Animated Feature category – no Pixar representation this year! Granted, Cars 2 was Pixar’s worst reviewed film, so it’s probably not that much of a surprise, but has anyone else heard of A Cat in Paris or Chico & Rita? As for the Academy, they really need to start considering actors who do motion capture work. Andy Serkis has given amazing performances in the past, and his role as the ape Caesar in Rise of the Planet of the Apes was amazing. The voters need to be educated on the motion capture process so they can start considering these performances as the technique begins to be used in more and more films.
So who do you think will win the top five awards, and who do you think got unfairly snubbed? Sound off in the comments below.
Clacked by Chuck Duncan 
on Jan 24, 2012 @ 11:00 EST5EDT
As much as I’d like to see Rooney Mara take the statue home, I’ve got no problem with fellow W&M alum Glenn Glose taking down “the Meryl.”
I’m with you on Chastain. She was great in The Help; she was phenomenal in The Debt.
And I just dont’ get McCarthy and Bridesmaids. I’ve been a fan of hers since Gilmore Girls; but I’m sorry, the scene where she and the rest of the cast literally crapped all over a room really turned me off.
*POST AUTHOR*
I would have liked to see “The Swinton” go up against “The Meryl.” I don’t think Close has a chance.
As for McCarthy, that was one scene. Hers was the only supporting character to not be so broadly drawn for the entire film, and she gave a nice performance in the scene where she goes to comfort and rally Wiig’s character. But, she still won’t win against Spencer.
Only one scene … As if one moment or decision isn’t enough to ruin something.
I’m sorry, that type of low-brow comedy just isn’t my thing. It’s the main reason I just can’t get completely behind Kevin Smith anymore.
*POST AUTHOR*
Ahh, well my brow can go low or high when it comes to comedy. I thought it was hilarious.
I thought Andy Serkis would finally be given some recognition by the Academy this year. Very disappointing, particularly when you compare the difficulty of what Andy did to what Brad Pitt (for example) did. I get that Moneyball was a great film, but is it fair that Brad Pitt’s perfectly adequate performance as Billy Beane gets a nomination over Andy’s remarkable performance as Caesar?
*POST AUTHOR*
I think with more and more films using the motion capture process, the Academy is going to have to start educating themselves on how an actor’s performance is translated to the screen. I think they have the impression that the CGI artists are doing all the work, but Serkis was on set interacting with the other actors and his performance really elevated the film. As the process becomes more common, there will have to be some adjustments to the voting process.
The best result of the snubs was Patton Oswald describing what him and the rest of them did to cope with not being nominated through his Twitter. Tilda Swinton stole a cop car, Gosling did keg stands, and Fassbender wore a pirate hat apparently.
Madonna was not snubbed…The song placement at end of WE…as a secondary credits song made is ineligible…And I am THRILLED Elton John got snubbed….For his ungracious remarks at Golden Globes….!!!
*POST AUTHOR*
I stand corrected. Didn’t have time to do all the fact checking, but I’m still glad Elton got snubbed after his/his partner’s Golden Globes rant. Talk about a sore loser.