It’s almost time! Hollywood’s biggest night of the year … The 84th Annual Academy Awards! Unfortunately, 2011 just wasn’t the greatest year for movies in general, although there have been some great performances in some lackluster movies. And with the odd selection of nine movies in the Best Picture category — and none of them true blockbusters — it’s almost hard to get too excited about what film wins. But a couple of my Flicks cohorts and I have decided to place our bets on the top six categories. For a full list of nominees — and a chance to vote for your own picks — visit our Oscar poll page. Let’s see if you agree with our picks …
Best Supporting Actor
Chuck: Christopher Plummer. I picked him as a nominee the moment he appeared on screen in Beginners, and he’s been sweeping the awards for the role. Plus, the Academy loves to honor an older actor who’s never won before (saves them from having to give them an Honorary Oscar to make up for the previous snubs).
Jeremy: Most Likely to Win — Christopher Plummer — the Academy loves an old guy nonwinner.
Should Really Win — Christopher Plummer — there are other non-nominated actors I’d prefer, but of who’s left…
Should Really Not Win — Jonah Hill — he was fine, but the weakest of this category.
Dan: Should be Christopher Plummer, will be Kenneth Branagh (who I haven’t yet forgiven for Thor).
Best Supporting Actress
Chuck: Octavia Spencer. Come on … this is hers to lose. Like Plummer, she’s swept all of the other major awards and I can’t see anyone else even having a chance against her (plus Jessica Chastain should have been nominated for playing the young Helen Mirren in The Debt … now that would have been a contest).
Jeremy: Most Likely to Win — Octavia Spencer — the Academy loves thinking they are progressive.
Should Really Win — Octavia Spencer — this is close, but again — this only includes who’s actually nominated.
Should Really Not Win — Melissa McCarthy — I’d call her performance “fearless,” but not that “good.” Not the same thing.
Dan: Should be Bérénice Bejo, will be Octavia Spencer (in one of the most brain-meltingly irritating films of the year).
Best Actor
Chuck: George Clooney. I know Dujardin seems to be the front runner now, but I still think his newcomer status will work against him with the Academy. They love George and he really delivered in a subtle performance of facial expressions and body language much like Dujardin, but his was in a more over-the-top way.
Jeremy: Most Likely to Win — Jean Dujardin — this guy gave a very winning performance, with some nuance too — plus the Academy might give him the “Roberto Benigni” award (although Benigni was a lot less talented).
Should Really Win — Gary Oldman — this was an acting performance filled with subtlety and care.
Should Really Not Win — Demián Bichir — that movie wasn’t so great — his performance is the weakest in this category.
Dan: Should be Gary Oldman, will be George Clooney (forgivable, because at least The Ides Of March was good).
Best Actress
Chuck: Viola Davis. This really is a tough one, and in any other year I would say Streep, but Davis should have won Supporting Actress in 2008 for Doubt, and everyone already knows Streep can do impeccable impersonations. Plus, people really liked The Help. The Iron Lady … not so much.
Jeremy: Most Likely to Win — Viola Davis — there’s no question she was the best part of the movie that the Academy loves for its faux progressiveness.
Should Really Win — Rooney Mara — she also played a character from a book that’s not as good as the movie, but one nearly impossible to convey.
Should Really Not Win — Michelle Williams — not her best performance.
Dan: Should be Rooney Mara, will be Meryl Streep (in that insultingly insensitive and pointless excuse for a film from the director of Mamma Mia!)
Best Director
Chuck: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist. He took a concept that probably should not have worked and made a film that audiences love. Scorsese won not too long ago for The Departed, and his homage to movie-making just didn’t get the same kind of attention even with the 3D. Payne did a great job, but perhaps it was a little too low-key. Allen turned in one of his most charming films in years, but he won’t be there so they won’t give him the award, and Malick’s films are beautiful to look at but a little too obtuse for most Oscar voters. Hazanavicius gets the award for making a black and white, silent movie work so successfully in a widescreen, Technicolor, 3D, multi-channel surround sound movie world.
Jeremy: Most Likely to Win — Michel Hazanavicius — tight race, but I think he gets it for the Artist love.
Should Really Win — Martin Scorsese — I really think his direction was the most interesting of the nominees.
Should Really Not Win — none — they are all good directors.
Dan: Should be Michel Hazanavicius, will be Michel Hazanavicius (because they can’t get EVERYTHING wrong).
Best Picture
Chuck: The Artist. Before The Artist came out, I would have given this to The Descendants for it’s quiet character study and terrific performances from Clooney and Shailene Woodley (who was robbed of a Supporting Actress nomination). But The Artist has taken everyone by surprise, winning more awards after its Golden Globe win and I think it has the momentum now to take the Oscar (and it will be only the second silent film in history to win Best Picture).
Jeremy: Most Likely to Win — The Artist — tight race, but it edges the rest out.
Should Really Win — The Artist — just a bit better than the rest.
Should Really Not Win — Extremely Loud and Incredible Close — this wasn’t a good movie.
Dan: Should be The Artist, will be War Horse (actually it should be one of the brilliant films that wasn’t nominated, but it will go to a film about a horse).
Well, it will be interesting to see how we did by the end of the night. We’re definitely in agreement about some of them, but wildly different on others (War Horse?). Check back to see our scores, and don’t forget to cast your own votes on our Oscar poll page!
Clacked by Chuck Duncan 
on Feb 25, 2012 @ 09:00 EST5EDT
