The, ahem, stars are back in the beautiful ABC ballroom for a sixteenth season of Dancing with the Stars, so for its season premiere my good pal Tara and I sat down and asked each other “who could win?” and “just exactly who are these people?” Our original plan was to pick a couple of people we thought could be our favorites, but when we both came up with the same two stars … because they were basically the only ones we knew … we decided to just go ahead and critique everyone’s performances and pick a contender or two after seeing them dance.

So after careful consideration and wearing out the DVR rewind button, we gathered our thoughts and had our post-show conversation. It went a little something like this …

Chuck: So, Tara, what did you think of this season’s crop of stars and their dancing abilities … or lack thereof?
Tara: Kellie Pickler and Derek Hough –Derek says she has potential for greatness. He oughta know. I watched her on American Idol the season she competed in, and she came out with some pretty funny lines. For the first week, I thought she was impressive. Although I like her with long hair better. The judges were rather tough with giving her all sevens, but at the beginning they usually give lower scores.
Chuck: I agree with you … about her hair. But her goofiness during rehearsals and pretty decent performance have won me over. I thought she was terrific, especially being first up and her experience being on another competition reality show should give her a bit of an advantage.
Tara: Good point about competition show experience!

Chuck: Victor Ortiz — Did not dance like a butterfly … scratch that, he danced like a huge butterfly the way he flapped those arms around. Much better and more controlled in hold though. I’m surprised the lift police, aka Carrie Ann, didn’t call them out for Lindsay’s foot coming off the floor. I did like Bruno’s comment referring to his big arm gestures: “It’s not Gorillas in the Mist.”
Tara: I’m mean ’cause I thought Bruno’s comment was really funny. I know. I’m mean.

Chuck: Ingo Rademacher and Kym Johnson got stuck with the first Contemporary dance of the evening. I was surprised they’d give them a dance with all those lifts on the first night, but he did a good job. Unfortunately, this is supposed to be a ballroom dancing competition, not So You Think You Can Dance! What are they going to do next week … Crunk?
Tara: Victor the Boxer and Ingo the Soap guy were just okay for me. I’m trying to come up with witty banter, but there ain’t much to say. They both will likely be tossed off in the middle somewhere.

Chuck: Lisa Vanderpump and Gleb Savchenko … are two of the hardest names to punch out here on the keyboard. Does she have a butt implant, because it looked weird and Lisa in a leotard is one of those things you just can’t un-see. Len thought there was too much staggering, so maybe she’d had a few cocktails. She’s definitely not a cougar though, because her chemistry with Gleb is non-existent. They’re pretty uncomfortable to watch.
Tara: Lisa from the Real Housewives and her dog just annoy me. People shouldn’t dress up their dogs as humans. It’s humiliating. That dog appears to have more outfits than I do, for Pete’s Sake.

Chuck: D.L. Hughley and Cheryl Burke — who did Cheryl piss off to get stuck with him? I’m having flashbacks to Master P. If he’s not the first to go, I will be shocked. And he calls himself Boogie Fantastic?!
Tara: He seems like a jovial sort, but I’ve watched this show long enough to know that Cheryl is completely pissed she got stuck with him. A bad partner equals an early sendoff and a lesser paycheck. I expect them to be gone first and watch her try to turn her sneer into a smile and take it gracefully. Now that I’ve called it to your attention? You’ll see how hard it will be for her to hide her disgust.
Chuck: I think that picture above is an accurate representation of D.L. killing Cheryl’s chances of winning another trophy.

Tara: Little Miss Disney Chick? Considering she’s a singer and hip hop dancer, I suspected she’d be good. Didn’t you? And is it even fair to allow someone that young who is already experienced in dance in the same competition as D.L.? She’s a contendah. For sure.
Chuck: This could get real awkward with her age. Did you see Val immediately pull back when she said she was 16? And who at 16 has the right to go only by their first name? I think Cher and Madonna would have a thing or two to say about that. But the dance suited her age, definitely. It will be interesting to see how she does with some of the more “mature” dances (which could be icky and illegal in some states).

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In anticipation of the new season of Cougar Town on its new network (TBS), catch up on the previous season this week on DVD. The first two seasons are also getting a re-release. Also hitting DVD this week are the second, third and fourth seasons of the critically acclaimed Southland. For kids of all ages, the Animaniacs return to DVD, along with Spider-Man and Ben 10. The excellent British series House of Cards gets a remaster for DVD and Blu-ray, and classic TV fans can own their favorite episodes of Naked City, The Beverly Hillbillies, and Bonanza. Have a look at our shopper’s guide to see these and more new releases for February 5, and click on a link to make a purchase or to get more information.

Best Import – Miranda

If you’re suffering from the mid-winter blahs like I am and find yourself in dire need of new laughs, I’d definitely suggest checking out the charming British sitcom Miranda. Think if a Liz Lemon-like character of similar failure-prone relatability in a sitcom with a mixture of the goofy sensibility of Happy Endings and the distinctly British embarrassment factor that the original Office had, and you have Miranda. The basic plot is of a large, very silly woman (played by the stellar Miranda Hart, who also writes the show) struggling to be mature and composed as she struggles through dating, work, and polite social interaction. Miranda also boasts a stellar cast of supporting characters that include her Lucille Bluth-ian mother, her best friend and co-worker Penny, and her longsuffering mutual crush Gary (played by the dreamy Tom Ellis, who Merlin fans will recognize as old baddie Cendred). It’s delightfully sweet, absurd, and poignant by turns. There is no technically legal way to get your hands on this show outside of the UK, and I don’t want to encourage anyone to break the law, per se, but if there’s a show worth finding a creative solution to watch, it’s this one.

Best Cameo – Michelle Williams on Cougar Town
I came extremely close to just declaring this a three-way tie and throwing the towel on this category, but that is not how we do it here at Sitcom Superlatives! Choices – even impossible ones, must be made. And so eliminated was poor, finally looking more his age and less like he was kept in a time dilation field between Olympics Bob Costas, despite his superlative job this week on Go On. Also sadly eliminated was the hysterical Octavia Spencer on 30 Rock doing her best impersonation of Tracy Jordan. (She will not have anything to do with Maryland because of her feud with Cal Ripken Jr.) But the ultimate winner had to be Michelle Williams’ blink-and-you’ll-miss-it cameo at the end of Cougar Town as Laurie’s foster sister. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Michelle Williams in a comedic role before, which is a damn shame. Between her boob shimmy at Laurie and her pitch-perfect delivery of “no, bitch, what what,” I can’t help but hope this is a recurring thing.

Also, Bob Costas excepted,it seems to me that more Oscar-nominated (or Oscar-winning) actresses should cameo on sitcoms For my sake, if not for theirs.

Best new bromance – Mark and James van der Beek on Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23
There’s a beautiful new relationship blossoming on Don’t Trust the B, and I’m not talking about Mark and June (because where did that come from?). No, Mark has far better chemistry with his new bro, a one Mr. James van der Beek.

I think the secret to what makes these two so delightful to watch together is that they mimic what makes June and Chloe so good. James, like Chloe, is ridiculous, spoiled, needy, and overly-dramatic. He and Chloe need the boring practicality of a June or Mark. And James’ horrible loss of confidence after his Dancing With The Stars career and subse was cut short and subsequent bravado jives well with Mark’s constant on-again, off-again relationship with his horrible girlfriend Jennifer. They both need someone to pick them up and make them feel good, as well as temper their more ridiculous turns (James) and their tendency towards Eeyore-like irritating self-loathing (Mark).

There are some shows where I simply don’t want anyone to have a romantic relationship with anyone, and Don’t Trust the B is one of them. But more quirky friendships like Mark and James’? Yes please; bring it on.

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To subscribe to the below schedule in iCal, copy this link and paste into the “Subscribe…” menu item in iCal. You can also just click it to open iCal or even click to add to your iPhone calendar. The same link will work in a Google Calendar as well! Or see the calendar as a web page (also embedded at the bottom of this post). The calendar will update as new shows are added/changed.

* All times are in EDT PM, unless otherwise mentioned.

* New series premieres are in Bold Italics

SERIES PREMIERES/RETURNS

JANUARY

Tuesday, January 1

9:00 Dance Moms (Lifetime)

9:00 Dual Survival (Discovery)

9:00 Emily Owens, M.D. (CW)

10:00 Parenthood (NBC)

10:00 Storage Wars: New York (A&E)

10:30 Double Divas (Lifetime)

Wednesday, January 2

8:00 Whitney (NBC)

8:30 Guys With Kids (NBC)

9:00 Law & Order: SVU (NBC)

9:00 NOVA (PBS)

10:00 Chicago Fire (NBC)

10:00 American Horror Story (FX)

Thursday, January 3

8:00 The Big Bang Theory (CBS)

9:00 Person of Interest (CBS)

10:00 Buck Wild (MTV)

10:00 Elementary (CBS)

Friday, January 4

8:30 Need To Know (PBS)

9:00 CSI: NY (CBS)

10:00 Bering Sea Gold (Discovery)

10:00 Blue Bloods (CBS)

10:00 Merlin (Syfy)

10:00 Over/Under (USA)

Sunday, January 6

8:00 Mob Wives (VH1)

8:00 Once Upon a Time (ABC)

8:00 The Simpsons (FOX)

8:30 Bob’s Burgers (FOX)

9:00 The Biggest Loser (NBC)

9:00 Downton Abbey (PBS)

9:00 Family Guy (FOX)

9:00 The Good Wife (CBS)

9:00 Rachael Vs. Guy Celebrity Cook-Off (Food)

9:00 Revenge (ABC)

9:30 American Dad (FOX)

10:00 The Mentalist (CBS)

10:00 Happy Endings (ABC)

10:30 Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23 (ABC)

11:00 Watch What Happens: Live (Bravo)

Monday. January 7

8:00 Antiques Roadshow (PBS)

8:00 The Bachelor (ABC)

8:00 Switched at Birth (ABC Family)

9:00 Bunheads (ABC Family)

10:00 Deception (NBC)

10:00 Vanderpump Rules (Bravo)

10:00 Castle (ABC)

Tuesday, January 8

8:00 Betty White’s Off Their Rockers (NBC)

8:00 NCIS (CBS)

8:00 Pretty Little Liars (ABC Family)

8:00 Raising Hope (FOX)

8:30 Ben & Kate (FOX)

9:00 Go On (NBC)

9:00 The Lying Game (ABC Family)

9:00 NCIS: Los Angeles (CBS)

9:00 New Girl (FOX)

9:30 The Mindy Project (FOX)

9:30 The New Normal (NBC)

10:00 Africa (Discovery)

10:00 America’s Supernanny (Lifetime)

10:00 Chopped (Food)

10:00 Cougar Town (TBS)

10:00 Frontline (PBS)

10:00 The Joe Schmo Show (Spike)

10:00 Justified (FX)

10:00 Million Dollar Decorators (Bravo)

10:00 Private Practice (ABC)

10:00 Snooki & JWoww (MTV)

10:00 Vegas (CBS)

10:30 The Burn With Jeff Ross (Comedy)

Wednesday, January 9

8:00 The Middle (ABC)

8:30 The Neighbors (ABC)

9:00 People’s Choice Awards (CBS)

9:00 Modern Family (ABC)

9:30 Suburgatory (ABC)

10:00 Barter Kings (A&E)

10:00 Nashville (ABC)

10:00 Washington Heights (MTV)

Thursday, January 10

8:00 30 Rock (NBC)

8:00 Critics’ Choice Movie Awards (CW)

8:00 Last Resort (ABC)

9:00 Grey’s Anatomy (ABC)

9:00 The Killer Speaks (A&E)

9:00 Millionaire Matchmaker (Bravo)

9:00 The Office (NBC)

10:00 Kathy (Bravo)

10:00 Property Wars (Discovery)

10:00 Scandal (ABC)

Friday, January 11

9:00 Fringe (FOX)

Saturday, January 12

10:00 Banshee (Cinemax)

Sunday, January 13

7:30 The Cleveland Show (FOX)

8:00 Golden Globe Awards (NBC)

9:00 Girls (HBO)

9:00 Shameless (Showtime)

9:30 Enlightened (HBO)

10:00 House of Lies (Showtime)

10:30 Californication (Showtime)

Monday, January 14

8:00 Bones (FOX)

8:00 The Carrie Diaries (CW)

8:00 Continuum (Syfy)

8:00 How I Met Your Mother (CBS)

9:00 2 Broke Girls (CBS)

9:00 Being Human (Syfy)

9:30 Mike & Molly (CBS)

10:00 Hawaii Five-0 (CBS)

10:00 Lost Girl (Syfy)

Tuesday, January 15

8:00 Hart of Dixie (CW)

8:00 Pioneers of Television (PBS)

9:00 Face Off (Syfy)

9:00 The Ultimate Guide to the Presidents (History)

10:00 Real Husbands of Hollywood (BET)

10:30 Second Generation Wayans (BET)

10:30 Total Blackout (Syfy)

Wednesday, January 16

8:00 American Idol (FOX)

8:00 Arrow (CW)

9:00 Criminal Minds (CBS)

9:00 Ghost Hunters (Syfy)

9:00 Supernatural (CW)

10:00 Bobby’s Dinner Battle (Food)

10:00 CSI (CBS)

10:00 Ghost Mine (Syfy)

10:00 Workaholics (Comedy)

10:30 Kroll Show (Comedy)

Thursday, January 17

8:00 The Vampire Diaries (CW)

8:30 Parks & Recreation (NBC)

9:00 Anger Management (FX)

10:00 Archer (FX)

10:00 Suits (USA)

10:30 Legit (FX)

11:00 Totally Biased with W. Kamau Bell (FX)

12:00AM Newsreaders (Adult Swim)

Friday, January 18

8:00 Nikita (CW)

10:00 Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)

Saturday, January 19

9:00 Ripper Street (BBCA)

Monday, January 21

9:00 90210 (CW)

9:00 The Following (FOX)

Tuesday, January 22

8:00 The Taste (ABC)

8:00 The Ultimate Fighter (FX)

10:00 White Collar (USA)

10:00 Wild Things with Dominic Monaghan (BBCA)

Wednesday, January 23

10:00 Necessary Roughness (USA)

Thursday, January 24

9:00 Beauty and the Beast (CW)

9:00 Glee (FOX)

9:00 Project Runway (Lifetime)

Friday, January 25

9:00 Spartacus: War of the Damned (Starz)

Sunday, January 27

8:00 Screen Actors Guild Awards (TNT, TBS)

Monday, January 28

9:00 Dallas (TNT)

Tuesday, January 29

9:00 Top Gear (History)

10:00 Southie Rules (A&E)

10:00 Ultimate Soldier Challenge (History)

10:00 The Americans (FX)

11:00 Nikki & Sara Live (MTV)

Thursday, January 31

10:00 Chef Wanted with Anne Burrell (Food)

10:00 Do No Harm (NBC)

FEBRUARY

Friday, February 1

8:00 NAACP Image Awards (NBC)

8:00 Undercover Boss (CBS)

Sunday, February 3

6:30 Super Bowl XLVII (CBS)

Monday, February 4

8:30 Rules of Engagement (CBS)

10:00 Monday Mornings (TNT)

Tuesday, February 5

9:00 Smash (NBC)

10:00 Body of Proof (ABC)

10:00 Tosh.0 (Comedy)

Wednesday, February 6

9:00 The Spies of Warsaw (BBCA)

Thursday, February 7

8:00 Community (NBC)

11:30 Brand X with Russell Brand (FX)

Friday, February 8

8:00 The Job (CBS)

8:00 Touch (FOX)

10:30 The Jenny McCarthy Show (VH1)

Sunday, February 10

8:00 The Grammy Awards (CBS)

9:00 Bar Rescue (Spike)

9:00 Battlestar Galactica: Blood & Chrome (Syfy)

9:00 The Walking Dead (AMC)

10:00 Car Lot Rescue (Spike)

11:00 Talking Dead (AMC)

Monday, February 11

11:00 Inside Comedy (Showtime)

Tuesday, February 12

8:00 Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show (USA)

Wednesday, February 13

8:00 Survivor (CBS)

10:00 Southland (TNT)

Thursday, February 14

8:00 Zero Hour (ABC)

9:00 Comic Book Men (ABC)

9:30 Freakshow (AMC)

10:00 Immortalized (AMC)

Sunday, February 17

8:00 The Amazing Race (CBS)

Tuesday, February 19

9:00 Cult (CW)

10:30 The Jeselnik Offensive (Comedy)

Sunday, February 24

8:30 The Academy Awards (ABC)

Tuesday, February 26

10:00 Golden Boy (CBS)

10:00 Robot Combat League (Syfy)

Wednesday, February 27

9:00 Boston’s Finest (TNT)

9:00 Haunted Collector (Syfy)

10:00 Psych (USA)

10:00 Stranded (Syfy)

MARCH

Sunday, March 3

9:00 The Apprentice (NBC)

9:00 Red Widow (ABC)

10:00 Vikings (History)

Friday, March 8

8:00 Fashion Star (NBC)

9:00 Grimm (NBC)

Monday, March 18

8:00 Dancing with the Stars (ABC)

Tuesday, March 19

8:00 Celebrity Diving (ABC)

Monday, March 25

8:00 The Voice (NBC)

10:00 Revolution (NBC)

Saturday, March 30

9:00 Orphan Black (BBCA)

Sunday, March 31

8:00 Ready for Love (NBC)

9:00 Game of Thrones (HBO)

9:00 Mr. Selfridge (PBS)

A couple of weeks ago, I submitted my entry for the Annual Ted Marshall Open Television Death Pool. If you’ve never heard of it before, it’s a competition to see who can best predict the shows most likely to get cancelled in the upcoming television year. This is my first year participating, but I like my chances.

This time of year, as the new fall shows get ready to premiere, I often think back to a conversation that Brett and I had years ago. He’s long been the ratings guru at CliqueClack, and I’ve been trying to pick up some pointers from him for quite some time. In this particular case, we were wondering how the hell it is that TV executive keep their jobs. Most times, when fans make this particular statement, it is because someone somewhere had cancelled their beloved – yet underperforming – show. But Brett and I were looking at something different: how often new shows fail to see a second season.

I don’t know about you, but if I were successful at my job around 58% of the time, I’m not sure my boss would keep me around. But that is about how successful the combined broadcast networks were successful at having shows survive past their first year in 2011. When you look at two and three-year success rates, the numbers are much worse.

Let’s take a look at last season:

Of the three seasons that we’ll look at, 2011, should have the best numbers; the shows that premiered last year have only had to survive one summer to still be on the air. 42% of the shows that premiered last year are still on the air sometime this season (That’s 37 of 64). The CW looks to have performed the worst, and they benefit from not having yet made a decision — at least that I can find — about The Breaking Point yet; other than that, we’re only talking about two shows, Hart of Dixie and The LA Complex. NBC batted .500, with a fair mix of sitcoms (Whitney, Up All Night), non-scripted (Betty White’s Off Their Rockers, Rock Center with Brian Williams) and dramas (Smash, Grimm). They did have several high profile misses, though (The Playboy Club, The Firm, Awake, Are you there, Chelsea?). The Alphabet Network also had a particularly bad year with big projects, with Charlie’s Angels, Pan Am, The River and GCB not making the cut, but also saw big successes in Revenge, Scandal and Once Upon a Time.

After two years, the networks’ combined score is only 22%; that’s 36 of 46 shows no longer on the air today. ABC only has three shows it premiered in 2010 airing still (Happy Endings, Body of Proof, Extreme Makeover: Weight Loss Edition); the other nine shows it premiered didn’t live past their first seasons. Despite what you might have heard, FOX’s Bob’s Burgers is still around, but it joins only Raising Hope as the survivors from the Class of 2010. NBC, however, easily had the worst year picking shows. That 7% represents one show, The Voice. Sure, that show’s done well enough for the network to give two cycles in a season a shot starting this spring, but that’s it. Shows like Law & Order: LA, Outlaw, The Cape, the Event and Undercovers all struggled and didn’t see a second season.

Of the three seasons we are looking at, 2009 will obviously have it the hardest to still have shows still airing, but that year manages to have done better overall than last year; 24% of those shows are still around (12 of 58). 33% of 2009 shows saw a second season (17) and 28% saw a third (14). For the purposes of these statistics, I counted ABC’s Cougar Town as cancelled, as the network did drop the show — even though it was picked up by TBS. Considering the summer start, I doubt ABC executives would have thought Rookie Blue would be the only surviving drama, leaving shows like V, FlashForward and Eastwick behind. Parenthood and Community are the only remaining NBC shows, though both have been on the bubble for several seasons. Only one of The CW’s nine shows remains — The Vampire Diaries – while Life Unexpected did stick around for a second season.

What can we learn from these numbers? I think it actually speaks to how fickle of an audience we are than true “failure” on behalf of these executives. I don’t envy their job; their successes and failures are very public, and they are dealing with millions of dollars. Moreover, we’ve seen networks like NBC stick with shows like Community when their ratings don’t necessarily support it; I’d argue that you don’t see enough of that anymore, but the fact that some networks are willing to take chances on behalf of a devoted fan-base is pretty cool.

Of course, I’d rather there wasn’t a metric crapton of non-scripted TV (read: reality) in my cable guide, so I guess nobody’s perfect.

A note about numbers: Anytime someone starts spouting numbers at you, most people would like to see where those numbers come from. I have to admit, I started with the biggest crowd-sourced databank there is: Wikipedia. ‘Ole Wiki has individual pages for each television season (2011, 2010, 2009); I started with a list of new primetime shows for each season/network and worked forward from there. Am I mistake prone? Keith and the rest of the editors will tell you that; I’m not claiming my Excel-aided math was perfect throughout. But you get the gist.

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